30.03.2012
Today no important news (just 14:30 from CAD)
Potential setups:
EUR/JPY:
It is in 5 (or ABC) move down. Second impuls wave is also 5 wave move. And now it is in IV correction move. It revers from S/R and 61,8 Fibo level. Now it is 3hours horizontal move.
What is strategy for this. I'm waiting for signal on 5minute chart and than probably open position with SL just over this last consolidation.
Breaking 109.90 will be long signal and than i will search for long positions.
There was v good sell signal on EUR/JPY. Hope someone took it.
Anyway I will look now for break of this resistance 109.90.
16:30 EUR/USD is close to potential retracement zone and end of 4 correction wave.
Strategy is same: first signal on H1 and its v close, than 5minute signal and waiting for another signal and Higher Low on 5minute chart.
Its falling down. No transactions. End for today:
1 transaction and 1xSL
28.03.2012 -11pips
In fact - there still can be potential setups on EUR/USD and GBP/JPY
Strategy is same: first signal on H1 and its v close, than 5minute signal and waiting for another signal and Higher Low on 5minute chart.
Its falling down. No transactions. End for today:
1 transaction and 1xSL
28.03.2012 -11pips
In fact - there still can be potential setups on EUR/USD and GBP/JPY
16:10
Possible long on AUD/USD:
AUD/USD is not on wave 4. Wave 3 was ideal 1,618 of wave 1. Now there is support line and 38,2 of wave 3.
H1 DT is close to give buy signal - but i will wait for Higher Low with buy signal on 5minute chart before opening position.
17:44 - im still waiting for Higher Low on 5minute chart.
18:54 Long opened: 1.04861 SL 1.04818
So Higher Low with buy signal on slower DT on 5minut.
19:20 SL -4,5pips.
For re-enter HL on 15minutes chart with same rules.
Possible long on AUD/USD:
AUD/USD is not on wave 4. Wave 3 was ideal 1,618 of wave 1. Now there is support line and 38,2 of wave 3.
H1 DT is close to give buy signal - but i will wait for Higher Low with buy signal on 5minute chart before opening position.
17:44 - im still waiting for Higher Low on 5minute chart.
18:54 Long opened: 1.04861 SL 1.04818
So Higher Low with buy signal on slower DT on 5minut.
19:20 SL -4,5pips.
For re-enter HL on 15minutes chart with same rules.
18:40 Im still watching AUD/USD but i dont know if i should open another positon
So today 3positions. 2x SL and -14pips and 1 gain +40pips so +26pips.
Last AUD/USD position closed on SL was just 4pips from bottom - but it was not just for me. With 6pips SL on it another 4 pips would make my SL almost 2xbigger.
So today 3positions. 2x SL and -14pips and 1 gain +40pips so +26pips.
Last AUD/USD position closed on SL was just 4pips from bottom - but it was not just for me. With 6pips SL on it another 4 pips would make my SL almost 2xbigger.
18:00
After few losses I made decision to clear charts and made new analysis. On 1h charts and on 15minutes. I dont see of course all clear now - but it is better I think. If im right You will see live - maybe even today or tomorrow.
USD/CAD is too messy for me now so I just removed it - but not for always of course.
AUD/USD:
AUD/USD is after 5 waves move down. Now it seems to be ABC correction - wave C. It can stop on fibo level and trend line like in chart.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD begin new down trend. It seems it is now in wave 3. But it retrace a little so now 15minutes chart:
ABC correction on 15minutes chart and wave C should stop on Fibo level and close to trend line than going down.
GBP/USD
5 wave down and now ABC correction that can stop in blue marked zone.
After few losses I made decision to clear charts and made new analysis. On 1h charts and on 15minutes. I dont see of course all clear now - but it is better I think. If im right You will see live - maybe even today or tomorrow.
USD/CAD is too messy for me now so I just removed it - but not for always of course.
AUD/USD:
AUD/USD is after 5 waves move down. Now it seems to be ABC correction - wave C. It can stop on fibo level and trend line like in chart.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD begin new down trend. It seems it is now in wave 3. But it retrace a little so now 15minutes chart:
ABC correction on 15minutes chart and wave C should stop on Fibo level and close to trend line than going down.
GBP/USD
5 wave down and now ABC correction that can stop in blue marked zone.
15:30 End for today just like in plan. I dont even want to look at this mess now. On Sunday i will try to make something with it and get some strategys. I need some clear look on market.
But that was day for my skalp. Not bug gains but about 2xmore than risk.
See You all in Sunday night as every week.
After next week I will have a week breake - im going to ski to Austria.
But that was day for my skalp. Not bug gains but about 2xmore than risk.
See You all in Sunday night as every week.
After next week I will have a week breake - im going to ski to Austria.
09.03.2012 08:00
No clear situations on market now. Today at 14:30 Non-Farm Employment Change so i think markets will wait for news and there will be some rapid moves after it.
I will just watch what is going on without positions (or maybe if i see something clear but it have to be in next 1-3hours max).
But probably no positions today.
No clear situations on market now. Today at 14:30 Non-Farm Employment Change so i think markets will wait for news and there will be some rapid moves after it.
I will just watch what is going on without positions (or maybe if i see something clear but it have to be in next 1-3hours max).
But probably no positions today.
10:30 Possible short on GBP/USD:
It broke zone - so im waiting.
10.55 Shorts on GBP/USD 1.58270 SL 1.58330
Risky position.
11:25 BE
12:20 I will start to defend short term position closer to market price.
12:35
SL 1.587830 - short term
SL 1.587945 - long term
News in 25 minutes.
12:40 SL on short term +43pips with 7pips SL.
12:52 Long term on SL. +32pips. I dont want to risk before news.
13:00 News exacly like forecasts.
It broke zone - so im waiting.
10.55 Shorts on GBP/USD 1.58270 SL 1.58330
Risky position.
11:25 BE
12:20 I will start to defend short term position closer to market price.
12:35
SL 1.587830 - short term
SL 1.587945 - long term
News in 25 minutes.
12:40 SL on short term +43pips with 7pips SL.
12:52 Long term on SL. +32pips. I dont want to risk before news.
13:00 News exacly like forecasts.
08.03.2012 07:00
Yesterday nothing happen on market and I stayed outside of it without any positions.
Today corrections are deeper and i will look for some short in direction of last moves.
First news:
Many news from GBP and few from EUR. This can be day with some bigger moves.
GBP/JPY:
Now it is in correction wave 4. On blue potential reversal zone 61.8 of wave 3 and 50% of 1-3move.
Yesterday nothing happen on market and I stayed outside of it without any positions.
Today corrections are deeper and i will look for some short in direction of last moves.
First news:
Many news from GBP and few from EUR. This can be day with some bigger moves.
GBP/JPY:
Now it is in correction wave 4. On blue potential reversal zone 61.8 of wave 3 and 50% of 1-3move.
07.03.2012
Today news:
12:00 German Factory Orders m/m EUR
next news begin from 14:15 and are USD news.
Yesterday strong up trends on USD and JPY made my analysis failed.
Now im just looking on situation. Some corrections are needed but yesterday trends were really strong so I will not trade against market. So now im waiting.
Today news:
12:00 German Factory Orders m/m EUR
next news begin from 14:15 and are USD news.
Yesterday strong up trends on USD and JPY made my analysis failed.
Now im just looking on situation. Some corrections are needed but yesterday trends were really strong so I will not trade against market. So now im waiting.
13:12 Im waiting for AUD/USd long signal. Just like i write in morning analsysis.
13:20 AUD/USD long 1.05895 SL 1.05860. Enter is on m1 chart SL less than 4pips.
Lets see.
Morning Analysis. Price reverse from trend line
That was how i enter. I had signals on H1 and on m5 but i was waiting for resignal on m1.
And of course it can still close on SL but I want to show why so short SL:
13:50 BE on trades.
14:20 Positions on BE. Just like i said it can retest trend line. And it can be little lower than last minimum. Still looking for position there.
14:50 reopen after retest 1.05715 SL 1.05630
SL but still looking for reopen.
15:25 Reopen.1.05570 SL 1.05515
15:40 Currencies dont want to fall down in rythm of S&P but I moving SL to BE not to loose.
13:20 AUD/USD long 1.05895 SL 1.05860. Enter is on m1 chart SL less than 4pips.
Lets see.
Morning Analysis. Price reverse from trend line
That was how i enter. I had signals on H1 and on m5 but i was waiting for resignal on m1.
And of course it can still close on SL but I want to show why so short SL:
13:50 BE on trades.
14:20 Positions on BE. Just like i said it can retest trend line. And it can be little lower than last minimum. Still looking for position there.
14:50 reopen after retest 1.05715 SL 1.05630
SL but still looking for reopen.
15:25 Reopen.1.05570 SL 1.05515
15:40 Currencies dont want to fall down in rythm of S&P but I moving SL to BE not to loose.
06.03.2012
Today not many important news:
9:00 - GBP Halifax HPI m/m
16:00 - Ivey PMI
Situations:
AUD/USD
This down trend can be ABC or 1-3 move. Both should end somewhere in blue zone.
But after it move up will be different. If its ABC it should be much stronger.
But in longer term i see situation different:
It can be triangle and e can be last move down and than it will be continuation of move up.
With this scenario if move stops on blue zone from first screen it should be wave 4 and than wave 5 (e) should end on black trend line.
If AUD/USD will breake blue zone it should stop on trend line and begin new up move.
Anyway strategy is: if i get signal in blue zone i will open position. If AUD/USD breake it i will wait till it reach close to bottom trend line and than after buy signal open position
On rest pairs almost nothing change from yesterday. I'm looking on GBP/JPY for long in consolidation zone.
Today not many important news:
9:00 - GBP Halifax HPI m/m
16:00 - Ivey PMI
Situations:
AUD/USD
This down trend can be ABC or 1-3 move. Both should end somewhere in blue zone.
But after it move up will be different. If its ABC it should be much stronger.
But in longer term i see situation different:
It can be triangle and e can be last move down and than it will be continuation of move up.
With this scenario if move stops on blue zone from first screen it should be wave 4 and than wave 5 (e) should end on black trend line.
If AUD/USD will breake blue zone it should stop on trend line and begin new up move.
Anyway strategy is: if i get signal in blue zone i will open position. If AUD/USD breake it i will wait till it reach close to bottom trend line and than after buy signal open position
On rest pairs almost nothing change from yesterday. I'm looking on GBP/JPY for long in consolidation zone.
GBP/JPY SL moved to BE.
USD/CAD closed on SL -5,5pips.
-11pips today but GBP/JPY position still open.
GBP/JPY on 50% of last wave down. I will begin to def short term position closer
14:32 Short term GBP/JPY position closed on SL. +72pips.
14:45 Long Term position SL moved to 128.920
16:00 GBP/JPY SL moved to 128.990
USD/CAD closed on SL -5,5pips.
-11pips today but GBP/JPY position still open.
GBP/JPY on 50% of last wave down. I will begin to def short term position closer
14:32 Short term GBP/JPY position closed on SL. +72pips.
14:45 Long Term position SL moved to 128.920
16:00 GBP/JPY SL moved to 128.990
04.03.2012
Hello. Its Sunday close to market opening. So here are few analysis for open and Monday:
AUD/USD:
AUD/USD is now in wave C. Potential end zones of this wave are marked on blue. If i get buy signal (faster line cross slower line from bottom) on faster DT on 1H chart im going to 5min Time Frame and look for buy signal. Than open position.
Im making plan before marking potential revers zones and than if i get signal in 1 of this zone im opening position.
EUR/USD
Last days fall down I treat like wave A of correction. It really should be end of it - but i cannot be sure about it. Thats why its just better to wait for wave B - and open position on end of it. But its too early for potential levels of end of wave B - I still dont know where will be begin of it.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is on wave C of correction ABC. Remember that ABC correction can turn to 1-5move - and we never know when it can happen - so now its ABC but it can be 1-5too. What can show that it can be 1-5 not ABC is wave C (3 in 1-5). If its much longer than 1 (1,618 of it with Eliot theory) we can expect its new 1-5 move not just ABC.
Lets return to GBP/USD. Wave C can end near 50% of Fibo - so if i get signal even after open of market I can go long, but it can fall down a little bit to bottom of wave 4, between of 50% and 61,8.
So there is another level of potential trade.
USD/CAD
I expect USD/CAD was in 5 wave move. But after point 4 (well marked with S/R and Fibo levels) it didnt fall down like it should. So it could be v short wave 5 and now its going up - but it can still stop close to point 4 and fall down making wave 5. If i get signal near that point i will go short.
Hello. Its Sunday close to market opening. So here are few analysis for open and Monday:
AUD/USD:
AUD/USD is now in wave C. Potential end zones of this wave are marked on blue. If i get buy signal (faster line cross slower line from bottom) on faster DT on 1H chart im going to 5min Time Frame and look for buy signal. Than open position.
Im making plan before marking potential revers zones and than if i get signal in 1 of this zone im opening position.
EUR/USD
Last days fall down I treat like wave A of correction. It really should be end of it - but i cannot be sure about it. Thats why its just better to wait for wave B - and open position on end of it. But its too early for potential levels of end of wave B - I still dont know where will be begin of it.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is on wave C of correction ABC. Remember that ABC correction can turn to 1-5move - and we never know when it can happen - so now its ABC but it can be 1-5too. What can show that it can be 1-5 not ABC is wave C (3 in 1-5). If its much longer than 1 (1,618 of it with Eliot theory) we can expect its new 1-5 move not just ABC.
Lets return to GBP/USD. Wave C can end near 50% of Fibo - so if i get signal even after open of market I can go long, but it can fall down a little bit to bottom of wave 4, between of 50% and 61,8.
So there is another level of potential trade.
USD/CAD
I expect USD/CAD was in 5 wave move. But after point 4 (well marked with S/R and Fibo levels) it didnt fall down like it should. So it could be v short wave 5 and now its going up - but it can still stop close to point 4 and fall down making wave 5. If i get signal near that point i will go short.
11:30 I have signal on H1 on EUR/USD and its in another potential retrace zone. If i get signal i will open position - of course with little SL.
Im doing this because 5 wave can be up to 300pips - of course i cannot even dream to catch whole move but its possible to get even 100pips. So risk/reward should be good.
11:55 Positions opened with 5,5pips SL below last low...
So next SL. Its over for today. I think that it was worth to risk here with such low SLs.
Analysis in weekend
Im doing this because 5 wave can be up to 300pips - of course i cannot even dream to catch whole move but its possible to get even 100pips. So risk/reward should be good.
11:55 Positions opened with 5,5pips SL below last low...
So next SL. Its over for today. I think that it was worth to risk here with such low SLs.
Analysis in weekend
02.03.2012 07:35
Possible long on EUR/USD.
This move down can be wave 4 correction. And there will be up move - wave 5.
Signal on H1.
07:52 - position opened 1.33030 SL 1.32920
SL - looking for reopen with SL below 1.32830
08:15 reopened. 1.32910 SL1.32798
Another SL. Seems im wrong.
2 positions. -20pips.
08:30 Last reopen with v little 5pips SL.
Possible long on EUR/USD.
This move down can be wave 4 correction. And there will be up move - wave 5.
Signal on H1.
07:52 - position opened 1.33030 SL 1.32920
SL - looking for reopen with SL below 1.32830
08:15 reopened. 1.32910 SL1.32798
Another SL. Seems im wrong.
2 positions. -20pips.
08:30 Last reopen with v little 5pips SL.
13:35 There can be trade on AUD/USD. It can be end of wave B. And short for wave C. Anyway long risk trade because potentail reward is not so big.
Possible enter on DT sell signal (and its close to buy signal now - so move up is needed)
14:19 Opened AUD/USD shorts 1.07449 SL 1.07825
14:52 BE - on position. I dont expect big moves so i prefer to save it and not loose.
BE - and still can be reopened.
Possible enter on DT sell signal (and its close to buy signal now - so move up is needed)
14:19 Opened AUD/USD shorts 1.07449 SL 1.07825
14:52 BE - on position. I dont expect big moves so i prefer to save it and not loose.
BE - and still can be reopened.
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