EUR/JPY:

Here EUR/JPY can be in wave 4 of 5 wave down and its  less probable - wave 4 is too big and broke a little top of wave 3. It can be true and non regular move down if price breake trend line of move up.

And I will put my money that its new move up. We are at top of wave (3) now it will be move down - and it should end somewhere near of Fibo grouping of (1) - (3) and (2) - (3) and trend line. Than it can be good trade for wave 5.

Now few analysis:

First of all strong EUR/USD setup thnx to Greenhaze for W1 few.

On H1 chart there is 5waves move up - where 5 = 1.

But on W1 chart we can see how strong this setup can be (and of course it can be not end of wave 5 - it can go up a little bit more)

Taking this one with standart rules (H1 short signal first, than 5min signal) can let to get in trade with little SL and big potential of trade.

01.04.2012

First of all - last week summaton of last week transaction.

Not many trades. First week after short vacation.

2 - trades. 2x SL and:

-15,5 pips

30.03.2012

Today no important news (just 14:30 from CAD)


Potential setups:

EUR/JPY:

It is in 5 (or ABC) move down. Second impuls wave is also 5 wave move. And now it is in IV correction move. It revers from S/R and 61,8 Fibo level. Now it is 3hours horizontal move.

What is strategy for this. I'm waiting for signal on 5minute chart and than probably open position with SL just over this last consolidation.

Breaking 109.90 will be long signal and than i will search for long positions.


There was v good sell signal on EUR/JPY. Hope someone took it.

Anyway I will look now for break of this resistance 109.90.

29.03.2012

Im not sleeping im watching market.

And I see long on GBP/JPY and short on GBP/USD....

GBP/USD retrace from retrace zone and give short signal. Now im waiting for confirmation on 5m.

16:30 EUR/USD is close to potential retracement zone and end of 4 correction wave.

Strategy is same: first signal on H1 and its v close, than 5minute signal and waiting for another signal and Higher Low on 5minute chart.

Its falling down. No transactions. End for today:

1 transaction and 1xSL

28.03.2012  -11pips

In fact - there still can be potential setups on EUR/USD and GBP/JPY

13:30  On GBP/USD was SL. So -11pips.

GBP/JPY looks stronger than GBP/USD.

12:30 Long on GBP/USD

1.59291 SL 1.52188

Price in trade zone. H1 buy signal.

Signal on 5minute. Than Higher Low with signal = open of position with SL below second low.

Potential trades levels (after reaching this level - i need faster DT signal on H1, than signal on 5minut slower DT and 5minute Higher Low with DT signal):

08:40  AUD/USD on support level and last level for long if its correction of wave 3.

28.03.2012 

Today important nevs:

10:30   GBP Current Account
14:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

No other trade today

27.03.2012:

1trade - SL -4,5pips

16:10

Possible long on AUD/USD:

AUD/USD is not on wave 4. Wave 3 was ideal 1,618 of wave 1. Now there is support line and 38,2 of wave 3.

H1 DT is close to give buy signal - but i will wait for Higher Low with buy signal on 5minute chart before opening position.

17:44 - im still waiting for Higher Low on 5minute chart.


18:54 Long opened: 1.04861  SL 1.04818

So Higher Low with buy signal on slower DT on 5minut.

19:20 SL -4,5pips.

For re-enter HL on 15minutes chart with same rules.

27.03.2012 08:00

Today no important news on EU session.

I see some potential setups. And i will post them later.

19:30 No trades today. I see some potential setups and i will post them tomorrow morning.

26.03.2012

Hello I'm back. Now im looking on market. Making analysis and looking for setups.

16:30 Thats end for today and for next week. Im going to ski and get some new strength.
I will come back at monday 26.03.2012 with new ideas ;)

12:35 GBP/USD short signal.

16.03.2012 10:00 Sorry for so late postiong but i was busy and i didnt see setups when I look at morning.

So still nothing - maybe GBP/USD short but if it go up I will post chart.

19:20 End for today. Everything was going in trend whole day.

07:50 Short AUD/USD 1.04820  SL 1.04880

  

S/R level. Top of wave "iv" - thats inside wave of wave 5, and 50% of wave iii

08:15 SL -6pips

15.03.2012  Im looking on situation.

19:16 AUD/USD long 1.04340 SL 1.04269

18:40 Im still watching AUD/USD but i dont know if i should open another positon

So today 3positions. 2x SL and -14pips and 1 gain +40pips so +26pips.

Last AUD/USD position closed on SL was just 4pips from bottom - but it was not just for me. With 6pips SL on it another 4 pips would make my SL almost 2xbigger.

15:30 Im looking for long on AUD/USD

16:22 AUD/USD Long:   1.044870  SL 1.044798

16:30 SL -8pips. All signals were good on this position - but of course it is against trend.

16:40 Reopen 1.04380 SL 1.04320

11:20 Close to GBP/USD short signal:

12:32 GBP/USD short: 1.57300  SL 1.57365

13:05 BE on postions.

13:35 Both SL moved to 1.56890

13:45 Closed on SL. +40pips. I wasn't sure how it can be thats why I made closer SL.
 Anyway those +40 pips is 5-6of my SL so im happy.

14.03.2012  08:10

I'm waiting for some signals. Stick to yesterday analysis.

18:00

After few losses I made decision to clear charts and made new analysis. On 1h charts and on 15minutes. I dont see of course all clear now - but it is better I think. If im right You will see live - maybe even today or tomorrow.

 USD/CAD is too messy for me now so I just removed it - but not for always of course.


AUD/USD:

AUD/USD is after 5 waves move down. Now it seems to be ABC correction - wave C. It can stop on fibo level and trend line like in chart.



EUR/USD:

EUR/USD begin new down trend. It seems it is now in wave 3. But it retrace a little so now 15minutes chart:

ABC correction on 15minutes chart and wave C should stop on Fibo level and close to trend line than going down.



GBP/USD

5 wave down and now ABC correction that can stop in blue marked zone.

12:50 AUD/USD long

1.05285. SL 1.05248

13.03.2012 I'm watching market from morning but i dont see anything clear.

End for today.

2xSL and -9pips lost.
Im entering from m1 after signals on H1 and m5 - thats why SLs are really little.

15:30 GBP/USD long 1.56140. SL 1.56090


15:33 GBP/JPY long 128.410  SL 128.370

13:40 GBP/JPY potential long.

If GBP/JPY is in new move up and now its wave 2 it can stop on this level. It S/R level and 50% of wave 1.

12:05 Looking for long on AUD/USD with v little SL.
I missed entry on AUD/USD - and after that it broke minimum - at least one time some luck ;)

Here are levels im looking for specially for Reza ;)

AUD/USD:

GBP/USD:

12.03.2012  Today no news.

Im watching AUD/USD and GBP/USD on rest pairs I dont see any potential trades.

11.03.2012  20:30 Sunday.

I will probably wait for Monday morning with analysis. I want to see what happen on opening.

15:30 End for today just like in plan. I dont even want to look at this mess now. On Sunday i will try to make something with it and get some strategys. I need some clear look on market.

But that was day for my skalp. Not bug gains but about 2xmore than risk.


See You all in Sunday night as every week.


After next week I will have a week breake - im going to ski to Austria. 

09.03.2012  08:00

No clear situations on market now.  Today at  14:30 Non-Farm Employment Change so i think markets will wait for news and there will be some rapid moves after it.

I will just watch what is going on without positions (or maybe if i see something clear but it have to be in next 1-3hours max).

But probably no positions today.

18:10 Seems its end for today. For such market im happy with today trades.

1x SL and 1xTP. 9pips SL and 32+45pips/2 = 33pips gain.

So +24pips for today (with less than 10pips SL)

Tomorrow morning i hope situation will be more clear.

10:30 Possible short on GBP/USD:

It broke zone - so im waiting.

10.55 Shorts on GBP/USD 1.58270 SL 1.58330

Risky position.


11:25 BE

12:20 I will start to defend short term position closer to market price.

12:35

SL 1.587830 - short term
SL 1.587945 - long term

News in 25 minutes.


12:40 SL on short term +43pips with 7pips SL.

12:52 Long term on SL. +32pips. I dont want to risk before news.

13:00 News exacly like forecasts. 

09:15 GBP/JPY short opened. 128.240  SL 128.325

08.03.2012   07:00

Yesterday nothing happen on market and I stayed outside of it without any positions.

Today corrections are deeper and i will look for some short in direction of last moves.


First news:

Many news from GBP and few from EUR. This can be day with some bigger moves.


GBP/JPY:

Now it is in correction wave 4. On blue potential reversal zone 61.8 of wave 3 and 50% of 1-3move.

07.03.2012
Today news:

12:00 German Factory Orders m/m EUR

next news begin from 14:15 and are USD news.

Yesterday strong up trends on USD and JPY made my analysis failed.
Now im just looking on situation. Some corrections are needed but yesterday trends were really strong so I will not trade against market. So now im waiting.

End for today. 4postions. 2xSL -22pips and 2x BE

It wasnt good idea to look for reverse today. Its time for new analysis but tomorrow morning.

13:12 Im waiting for AUD/USd long signal. Just like i write in morning analsysis.

13:20 AUD/USD long 1.05895  SL 1.05860. Enter is on m1 chart SL less than 4pips.
 Lets see.

Morning Analysis. Price reverse from trend line

That was how i enter. I had signals on H1 and on m5 but i was waiting for resignal on m1.
And of course it can still close on SL but I want to show why so short SL:

13:50 BE on trades.

14:20 Positions on BE. Just like i said it can retest trend line. And it can be little lower than last minimum. Still looking for position there.

14:50 reopen after retest 1.05715 SL 1.05630

SL but still looking for reopen.

15:25 Reopen.1.05570 SL 1.05515

15:40 Currencies dont want to fall down in rythm of S&P but I moving SL to BE not to loose.

10:40 Potential long on GBP/USD
Double bottom, 61,8 of last move up.

Position opened. GBP/USD long: 1.577910. SL 1.577798

Fast SL -12 pips.

08:30 GBP/JPY long. 128.970 SL. 128.890.

SL -10pips

06.03.2012

Today not many important news:
9:00 - GBP Halifax HPI m/m
16:00 - Ivey PMI


Situations:

AUD/USD

This down trend can be ABC or 1-3 move. Both should end somewhere in blue zone.
But after it move up will be different. If its ABC it should be much stronger.

But in longer term i see situation different:

It can be triangle and e can be last move down and than it will be continuation of move up.
With this scenario if move stops on blue zone from first screen it should be wave 4 and than wave 5 (e) should end on black trend line.
If AUD/USD will breake blue zone it should stop on trend line and begin new up move.

Anyway strategy is: if i get signal in blue zone i will open position. If AUD/USD breake it i will wait till it reach close to bottom trend line and than after buy signal open position




On rest pairs almost nothing change from yesterday. I'm looking on GBP/JPY for long in consolidation zone.

20:05
GBP/JPY long term position closed on SL +65pips with second short term position with gain +72 - whole gain is 68pips.

Long consolidation and move down long enough to close it this postion.

Today 3 postions. 2x SL and 1 gain.
+58pips.

GBP/JPY SL moved to BE.

USD/CAD closed on SL -5,5pips.

-11pips today but GBP/JPY position still open.

GBP/JPY on 50% of last wave down. I will begin to def short term position closer

14:32 Short term GBP/JPY position closed on SL.  +72pips.

14:45 Long Term position SL moved to 128.920

16:00 GBP/JPY SL moved to 128.990

12:20 USD/CAD short

  0.99425  SL 0.99485

Also GBP/JPY long 128.325  SL: 128.198

10:40 GBP/JPY

There can be interesting trade on GBP/JPY.

It is now in correction of wave up - this wave can be wave 1 of next up trend. And GBP/JPY is in strong up trend.
Opening long in bottom of wave 2 can give good profit beacause wave 3 is in most times the longest wave.

10:30 Potential short on USD/CAD

After USD/CAD broke A (which i suppose could be point 4) I treat it now as ABC correction. So it can be now close to end of wave C. And USD/CAD can come back to down trend.

09:20 GBP/USD in long zone. Im waiting for H1 signal. But 10:30 news from GBP

08:20 Opened short on USD/CAD - with Sunday plan.
     0.99072.  SL 0.99125
5,5pips SL so not v risky transaction.
SL -5,5pips.

04.03.2012

Hello. Its Sunday close to market opening. So here are few analysis for open and Monday:


AUD/USD:

AUD/USD is now in wave C. Potential end zones of this wave are marked on blue. If i get buy signal (faster line cross slower line from bottom) on faster DT on 1H chart im going to 5min Time Frame and look for buy signal. Than open position.

Im making plan before marking potential revers zones and than if i get signal in 1 of this zone im opening position.


EUR/USD

Last days fall down I treat like wave A of correction. It really should be end of it - but i cannot be sure about it. Thats why its just better to wait for wave B - and open position on end of it. But its too early for potential levels of end of wave B - I still dont know where will be begin of it.




GBP/USD

GBP/USD is on wave C of correction ABC. Remember that ABC correction can turn to 1-5move - and we never know when it can happen - so now its ABC but it can be 1-5too. What can show that it can be 1-5 not ABC is wave C (3 in 1-5). If its much longer than 1 (1,618 of it with Eliot theory) we can expect its new 1-5 move not just ABC.

 Lets return to GBP/USD. Wave C can end near 50% of Fibo - so if i get signal even after open of market I can go long, but it can fall down a little bit to bottom of wave 4, between of 50% and 61,8.
So there is another level of potential trade.

USD/CAD

I expect USD/CAD was in 5 wave move. But after point 4 (well marked with S/R and Fibo levels) it didnt fall down like it should. So it could be v short wave 5 and now its going up - but it can still stop close to point 4 and fall down making wave 5. If i get signal near that point i will go short.

11:30 I have signal on H1 on EUR/USD and its in another potential retrace zone. If i get signal i will open position - of course with little SL.
Im doing this because 5 wave can be up to 300pips - of course i cannot even dream to catch whole move but its possible to get even 100pips. So risk/reward should be good.

11:55 Positions opened with 5,5pips SL below last low...

So next SL. Its over for today. I think that it was worth to risk here with such low SLs. 

Analysis in weekend

02.03.2012 07:35

Possible long on EUR/USD.

This move down can be wave 4 correction. And there will be up move - wave 5.

Signal on H1.

07:52 - position opened 1.33030 SL 1.32920

SL - looking for reopen with SL below 1.32830

08:15 reopened. 1.32910  SL1.32798


Another SL. Seems im wrong.

2 positions. -20pips.

08:30 Last reopen with v little 5pips SL. 

Nothing clear today. One position - 0 pips on AUD/USD.

Im still focusing on high probability positions - that means not much positions when i dont see clear situtaions.

Tomorrow morning analyisis.

13:35 There can be trade on AUD/USD. It can be end of wave B. And short for wave C. Anyway long risk trade because potentail reward is not so big.

Possible enter on DT sell signal (and its close to buy signal now - so move up is needed)

14:19 Opened AUD/USD shorts 1.07449 SL 1.07825

14:52 BE - on position. I dont expect big moves so i prefer to save it and not loose.

BE - and still can be reopened.

01.03.2012

New month. I hope it will be good one ;)

Today many news.


Situation

AUD/USD is on B wave of ABC correction. No position on this wave. Bottom of wave C will be good point to open long.

GBP/JPY - i dont see clear situation. It is or in B wave or it can even be in wave 1 of new move up. I will wait for more clear situation.

EUR/USD - double top - now move down. But i think its just correction and we will see 1 more up wave.

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD is in correction wave 4. It should stop somewhere in blue zone which is between 50 and 61,8% of wave 3 and 100pips from top - just like correction wave 2. 


USD/CAD:

Strong 3 waves move down.  Now its in wave 4. If it come to S/R level marked black line, and close to 50% of wave 3 and give signal of course I will open posistion there,

11:40 GBP/JPY sell signal on H1. Now im waiting for sell signal on 5min TF.

13:05 There was no valid sell signal on GBP/JPY yet. Im still waiting.

18:30 I'm still looking on this GBP/JPY - it can be wave B still. No other pairs today.
I will post some analysis morning. Or i will tell when i will open GBP/JPY position.

29.02.2012  07:30

Today many news:

I will not open any position just before "red" news.


Now situtation.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is now in wave 5 of up trend. 2 blue zones are potential reversal zones from Fibo projections of wave 1, wave 3, wave 1-3, and revers projection of wave 4.



EUR/USD

EUR/USD is also in wave 5 of up trend. Potential reversal zones are marked blue. Also by Fibo levels grouping. 3rd level is 100% of wave 1 and wave 3.


GBP/JPY

I think its still in wave B and before any bigger move up it should go down. But its possible that yesterday move down was wave C and there is non regular ABC correction.

19:00 End for today. No potentail setups. I will post some analysis tomorrow early morning.

4 transactions.
2x  -10pips SL on GBP/JPY
1x AUD/USD 0 pips.
1x +26pips GBP/JPY

So very little gain.

1 GBP/JPY position was too fast reopened.

Short on GBP/JPY
Sell signals on H1 and slow DT on 5min TF.

128.030.  SL 128. 128
 SL = 10pips.


There is sell signal on AUD/USD but price is 17pips from last high and potentail SL. Its too high for me.

Short on AUD/USD SL 1.07890

SL on GBP/JPY  -10pips. But im reopening it with SL on 128.230

Another SL on GBP/JPY -20pips today.

10:05 I shouldnt reopen GBP/JPY that fast. It should be reopen from m1.

But anyway if i get sell signal on 5min i can still get shorts there.

10:52 GBP/JPY close to reopen.

10:58 1 low risk position on GBP/JPY opened with SL 128.148

11:30 SL moved to 127.940

12:00 SL on AUD/USD moved to 1.07740 below open.

12:37 GBP/JPY SL moved 127.740

13:15 SL AUD/USD 0pips

14:00 GBP/JPY on SL +26pips.

AUD/USD:

It is probably in ABC correction of last move down. It can be just after high of wave C. DT on H1 gave sell signal but still I will wait for signal on 5min slow DT and it can be short here.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD seems to be after correction waves and both pairs begin new up waves.
If its not true and price will fall down to last minimums i will post charts and setups.

Setups:

GBP/JPY:

After this huge 5 waves move up there is correction now. It can be ABC correction and it should be like this:

There was wave A. Stoped on 38,6 of whole move. Now its wave B. It should stop somewhere on blue level. It is Fibo of wave A and 140 pips - and it is lenght of correction wave 4.

If there will be a sell signal in that zone i will open short.