01.03.2012

New month. I hope it will be good one ;)

Today many news.


Situation

AUD/USD is on B wave of ABC correction. No position on this wave. Bottom of wave C will be good point to open long.

GBP/JPY - i dont see clear situation. It is or in B wave or it can even be in wave 1 of new move up. I will wait for more clear situation.

EUR/USD - double top - now move down. But i think its just correction and we will see 1 more up wave.

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD is in correction wave 4. It should stop somewhere in blue zone which is between 50 and 61,8% of wave 3 and 100pips from top - just like correction wave 2. 


USD/CAD:

Strong 3 waves move down.  Now its in wave 4. If it come to S/R level marked black line, and close to 50% of wave 3 and give signal of course I will open posistion there,

11:40 GBP/JPY sell signal on H1. Now im waiting for sell signal on 5min TF.

13:05 There was no valid sell signal on GBP/JPY yet. Im still waiting.

18:30 I'm still looking on this GBP/JPY - it can be wave B still. No other pairs today.
I will post some analysis morning. Or i will tell when i will open GBP/JPY position.

29.02.2012  07:30

Today many news:

I will not open any position just before "red" news.


Now situtation.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is now in wave 5 of up trend. 2 blue zones are potential reversal zones from Fibo projections of wave 1, wave 3, wave 1-3, and revers projection of wave 4.



EUR/USD

EUR/USD is also in wave 5 of up trend. Potential reversal zones are marked blue. Also by Fibo levels grouping. 3rd level is 100% of wave 1 and wave 3.


GBP/JPY

I think its still in wave B and before any bigger move up it should go down. But its possible that yesterday move down was wave C and there is non regular ABC correction.

19:00 End for today. No potentail setups. I will post some analysis tomorrow early morning.

4 transactions.
2x  -10pips SL on GBP/JPY
1x AUD/USD 0 pips.
1x +26pips GBP/JPY

So very little gain.

1 GBP/JPY position was too fast reopened.

Short on GBP/JPY
Sell signals on H1 and slow DT on 5min TF.

128.030.  SL 128. 128
 SL = 10pips.


There is sell signal on AUD/USD but price is 17pips from last high and potentail SL. Its too high for me.

Short on AUD/USD SL 1.07890

SL on GBP/JPY  -10pips. But im reopening it with SL on 128.230

Another SL on GBP/JPY -20pips today.

10:05 I shouldnt reopen GBP/JPY that fast. It should be reopen from m1.

But anyway if i get sell signal on 5min i can still get shorts there.

10:52 GBP/JPY close to reopen.

10:58 1 low risk position on GBP/JPY opened with SL 128.148

11:30 SL moved to 127.940

12:00 SL on AUD/USD moved to 1.07740 below open.

12:37 GBP/JPY SL moved 127.740

13:15 SL AUD/USD 0pips

14:00 GBP/JPY on SL +26pips.

AUD/USD:

It is probably in ABC correction of last move down. It can be just after high of wave C. DT on H1 gave sell signal but still I will wait for signal on 5min slow DT and it can be short here.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD seems to be after correction waves and both pairs begin new up waves.
If its not true and price will fall down to last minimums i will post charts and setups.

Setups:

GBP/JPY:

After this huge 5 waves move up there is correction now. It can be ABC correction and it should be like this:

There was wave A. Stoped on 38,6 of whole move. Now its wave B. It should stop somewhere on blue level. It is Fibo of wave A and 140 pips - and it is lenght of correction wave 4.

If there will be a sell signal in that zone i will open short.

28.02.2012   07:30

New for today:

Many news from USA. 14:30 will be not good time for trading - but EU session seems to be fine.

18:30 No clear situations for me today/ Specially with my last analysis. Only 1 transaction was short on open on GBP/USD - but i know on some platforms there is about 10pips spread and i had on 23.20 gmt+1 less than 2pips spread so I could try to open it.

Nothing else today. Tomorrow early morning alaysis and potentail setups.

10:00 Still nothing clear but some moves are good and soon there can be some setups.

26.02.2012

I dont see any clear situation.

AUD/USD is in down move after ABC correction.

EUR/USD  - nothing clear here for me.

GBP/JPY - still strong up trend. Its should be near end - and some strong correction should come - but no clear point of reverse. Best thing will be just wait for correction and try to take move down on point B.

GBP/USD - here can be begin of correction wave 4. Only here can be possible trade if price reach friday top.

USD/CAD I think that its just near top of wave B in ABC correction so down wave C can be near. But again best way is just to waite and get bottom of wave C and another move up.

SL on AUD/USD +20pips.

End for this week. As always some analysis on weekend.

12:35 GBP/JPY short 127.290 SL 127.435


GBP/JPY SL -15pips

12:30 AUD/USD short 1.07460 SL 1.07560

13:30 SL moved 1.07435

Its too early for potential targets.

14:30 SL moved to 1.07255 AUD/USD

11:50 There is potential trade on GBP/JPY too. Its now in wave 5. On strong S/R level and 5 = 1 now.

Im still waiting and i will take probably 2 trades - GBP/JPY or GBP/USD or AUD/USD.

AUD/USD didnt breake night high so it looks strongest.

GBP/USD

Similar situation to AUD/USD

ABC correction of last move down.

And there can be really big move down.

10:05 On GBP/USD there is another level of reverse. Its about 7 - 15 pips higher than last high.

Anyway H1 DT is still far from giving sell signal.

10:21 Now im waiting for another move up and on this move i will look for enter.

10:50 Situation:

 2 levels are broken - i will wait for position somewhere last level. H1 DT still didnt give signal.

24.02.2012

red news for today:

10:30 GBP
16:00 USA

Today i see 2 potential setups.

AUD/USD:

There was a wave down 1. Now we have correction of this wave.

On 15minute chart its ABC correction:

It can go to blue level. Its 78,6 of wave 1 and 100% of wave A projection.

23.02.2012

I dont see any good setups. Only 1 potential trade is GBP/JPY if it will go down.

Nwes for today are just:
10:00 German Ifo Business Climate  - red news EUR
14:30 New Home Sales - USD

18:15 Long on GBP/USD

All signals are valid. 1.56730 SL 1.56640

16:00 Interesting situation on USD/CAD.

1h up trend is 5 waves on 15minutes chart. Its now on 78,6 of last down move and its 78,6 of waves 1 and 3.
If it gives short signal on this level i will short it.

14:45  AUD/USD longs 1.06160  SL 1.06070 S/R level. Signals on H1 fast DT and 5min slow DT.

15:45 both positions on BE. Buy signal on DT on 5min TF.

16:00 - BE

11:10 GBP/USD is on 78,6 of last move up. And 100% of 3 waves move down on 15minute chart. If i get signals i will long it.

And 15minute chart:

From now i will change posting. When i open position updates of position will be below.

So new SL move etc will be below older update now over like it was before..


12:05 - im waiting for correction and buy signal on 5minute chart.  I will probably open position in such situation with SL just below last low - not H1 low.

12:20 Opened longs 1.517150 RL1.57060

12:30 SL looking for re-open

Re-open 1.67090 SL1.6693

Second Stop loss. Thats not my time.

It stoped on low of my reverse level. And i will probably re-open it 1 last time.

13:15 Last re-open at 1.56970 with SL 1.56880.
Potential targets are really good thats why im trying to get it.



This is reason why i opened this transaction 3 times. I had buy signal on 1H and 3 signals on 5minute. Thats sometimes can happen thats why im trying to stick with close SL:
On slow DT You can see 3 buy signals. After first 2 it fall down. I hope that will not happen now.

Another SL. 3 positions. -34pips.

22.02.2012  07:30

News for today:

09:00 - 10:00 some news from EUR.
10:30 "red" news from GBP
16:00 USA Existing Home Sales


On markets no clear situation.

GBP/USD and AUD/USD broke lows.
GBP/JPY still didnt make minimum of correction
EUR/USD is in horizontal trend. 

So now just waiting.

Closed on SL +10pips.

I'm leaving AUD/USD position for night with 1.06710 SL - that means +10pips from open.

SL -10pips on  GBP/USD. AUD/USD still open.

Possible GBP/USD longs open.

GBP/USD longs 1.57870 open SL 1.57770 SL = 10pips

RISK : REWARD how important it is

Look on 1 thing - that wont be a rule in market behavior but its better for odds in trading. I gave v close SL. More logic Stop Loss was below last low and all this support levels i show in analysis.
But first:  SL would be about 12pips bigger (that would make make my 7pips SL  170% bigger!).
Second it could be broke anyway (and after breaking "big" support move is more rapid = more slippage on ECN/STP broker).
What i said just after opening position that i can still re-open it. Even higher.


And now we have AUD/USD position. I do almost exacly same thing. Tight SL. After it was broken i just wait for another signal and re-open position. On higher level than SL. But only thing i can do just after opening position is make my risk and potential risk:reward ratio best as possible.


With 7-12pips SL 50pips profit makes reward 4-6 times better than risk. With 20-30 2x. What higher R:R gives me? I can be wrong in 70% time and still be profitable. Of course im doing what i can to be 60% profitable but i get this comfort.


Like on last Thursday when i had 3loses and 1 profit. I had 25% efficiency - but I earned 54 pips and lost 27. So even with 25% (thats not good ;) ) i earn in 1 position twice more than i lost in 3.


Thats the power of good Risk:Reward and comfort that i can be wrong but still earn.


And some movie:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZNr6WSidFw

Of course from movie just about losses. Rest is well v nice and making us Gods - and its best way to loose money. 

GBP/USD is near 50% - it "likes" this level. I will look at it. But no decision yet of course - if i get strong signals on both time frames (slower DT = stronger) i can open long 1 more. But only with little SL.

Well situation changed anyway - that was too rapid move.  So no longs now - im looking for another level.

14:35 SL -7pisp. Im still looking for longs.

If i get stop loss i will look for reopen.

14:14    1.58070   SL 1.58005  GBP/USD longs

Opened

14:10 Im prepared for GBP/USD long

I had delated my post about AUD/USD while i was giving potential targets. So target first than i will try to find opening of AUD/USD position...

Targets:

Minimum is 38,2 of this wave down - this is target for short term - after reaching trend line and somwhere near 38,2 i will defend position closer (can be below last 5min bar)
Target for long term is somewhere between 50 and 61,8 - but of course it can happen that trend become strong and position will last longer.

Ok here it is all (with SL position too of course) 


 BE on AUD/USD positions and im waiting for correction on 5min TF on GBP/USD to take longs.

 There is buy signal on GBP/USD but i will w8 for signal on 5min too.

 13:35 Reopened 1.06600. SL 1.06515

SL but i can still re-open if i get another buy signal.

There are few reasons why i opened this postion.


1. 78,6 Fibo of last last up move.
2. Trend line (im using them sometimes when they fit - just like S/R levels, sometimes some AT formation too)
3. Down move has lenght of almost 160pips - and it fit to last AUD/USD trend moves. From 150 to 180pips.


Potential of transaction is not so big. Just some Fibo levels of this 160pips move down.
12:07 New position: AUD/USD long 1.06693 SL 1.06570
SL=12pips.

GBP/USD situation:

GBP/USD is probably in correction wave 2.

Level marked on blue is:

1.  38,2 of wave 1 Fibo
2. Support level - price bounced twice just after first impulse up
3. Its 90 - 96pips from top and correction waves 1-2, 3-4 and 5-A had lengh from 90 to 95pips.

 10:00 Long term closed on BE. 0pips.

09:30 Short term position closed on SL + 27pips with 12pips SL.
Long Term position is still open.


09:08 Short term position SL moved to 1.32565 - sell signal on DT in 5min TF - SL just above last high.

08:45  Potential targets:

Blue marked lvl is target for short term position. Its minimum of correction - 38,2 and abot 120 pips from maximum = length of last down move correction waves 2 and 4.

Long term position can move further somewhere between 50% and 61,8.

08:25 SL moved on BE 1.32820

07:56 Orders opend at 1.32828 SL 1.32940. SL = 12pips.

I will try to defend this position on begin - situation is still not clear. But potential of correction is really big.

21.02.2012 07:42 GMT+1

Today we have "red news" from GBP at 10:30 and CAD at 14:30.

There was some up and down moves at night because of Greece.
ERU/USD didnt react very strong (maybe that was expected and after this 3 days up trend it is already "in price")

I will still look for short on EUR/USD and its v close to give signal:

It is now on resistance level - top of 2 corrrection wave of last down trend. It can go to level 5 - but it can be near top now too.
Fast DT is very close to give sell signal. 5min DT is also close.

 16:45 Closed on SL - +12pips with 10pips SL. This is end for today - no USA session. Tomorrow morning will be much more interesting i hope ;)

 16:30 SL moved to 1.3254 - another high with sell signal

16:00 Now i can show potential targets:

Blue level between 38,2 and 50% of wave A for short term position. Correction waves 2 and 4 of down trend had about 120 pips length so searching for analogy and Fibo levels I have this level.

Long term can be to 61,8 or 78,6 of wave A - but its less probable. I still belive it just ABC correction before another up trend.

15:50 SL on BE = 1.23675  I want to defend positions faster because of USA day free. But also there is top in 5minute Time Frame with sell signal. 

14:15 EUR/USD shorts opened 1.23680
Sl 1.32775
SL = 10pips

13:10 AUD/USD situation:

If we had B top now we can be in last wave of ABC correction. It should stop somewhere in blue level - Fibo group of last up moves and projection of AB wave.

12:20 I see only 1 possible trade EUR/USD:

EUR/USD broke 78,6 of last down move and 127,2 reverse projection of wave 5. It stoped on that level. IF i get sell signal i can take shorts.

Today no session in USA - that means shorter trading time. 

09:00 Begin of London. Im still waiting for corrections and to levels like in Sunday plans.

23:05 No position now. Open was too high. There was ideal buy signal on AUD/USD on late Friday. But I dont trade last 4-5hours of Friday. I rather no to take some profit than have some "surprice" like was in Iran and 1 000 pips open against my postion.

22:40

20minutes to market open.

On open there is 1 potential trade - AUD/USD opening near last bottom - about 15pips lower than Friday close. If it opens somewhere there (or go there) and start to reverse - 5min will give signal and it will be valid signal.
Just look on AUD/USD analysis.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is in wave A of ABC correction or maybe its even now in wave B. Potential end of wave B i marked blue. Its level between 50 and 61,8 Fibo + length of 2 correction waves of last down trend 2 and 4 is within this level.

Anyway potential of wave C is not so big as moves on other currencies.

GBP/JPY

Very, very strong up trend in last 2 days.

We are in wave 3 - correction should come and smart catch of bottom of it can give nice move up with wave 5.

Potential levels of reversal marked blue. (of course it can change if GBP/JPY would move up on Sunday or Monday before move down)

Simple Fibo retracements point C-3, and 2-3.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is after 1-5move down. Last week i was expecting ABC correction and move down. But seem we had up trend impuls and we are just after 1st wave of trend.
I will look for level marked blue.
1st it is 50% of this wave 1.
2nd correction waves of last down trend 2 and 4 were about 90pips - so im looking for analogy and its near 50% level.

If i get signal close to this level i will open longs.

AUD/USD plan for sunday and monday.

Here is chart:

We are now just after correction ABC - so in wave 1 of new down trend or in wave 4 of up trend.

If we are in wave 1 of down trend it should go down below point B. But if its wave 4 it should revers from 1 marked on blue level.
Fibo levels are retracement of 5 - 1/A, and 5 - 3/C, and revers projection of 1-2 (or A-B).

Early Sunday plan - if there is signal on this closer level on both TF i will open position.
Monday - still wait for signal on 1 of 2 levels (if it goes down - valid signal can be between points 2/B - 5)

Tomorrow analysis with some plan for early Sunday open and monday begin of Europe session.

End for today and this week. I didnt open positions.

On begin of week there can be some setups.

I will post some charts with analysis in weekend.

14:50 EUR/USD Potential signal:

DT in sell zone - can give signal. Price is on double top (top of ceorrection wave 4) and on 61,8 of 1-5down trend.

11:05 Im still waiting for some setups. If H1 DT will give sell signal on GBP/USD. EUR/USD or GBP/JPY for correction i will think about transaction.

But AUD/USD looks strongest. Others broke highs it didnt.

10:15 Possible GBP/USD short:

 Double top (top of wave 4) and 61,8 of last down trend.

09:50
I'm still w8ing for some deeper corrections.

Only GBP/USD can begin new down trend - in rest pairs (AUD/USD, EUR/USD. GBP/JPY) i see only corrections now.

EUR/USD

07:30 Situation:

We are after big down  trend. What i see now is probably end of correction wave A, so now should be B wave down - and on that wave i will try to open position on bottom of this B wave.

It should be somewhere in blue level. This is Fibo retracement of wave A, and length of 2 and 4 correction waves of down trend (im looking for some analogy)

17.02.2012


After yesterday end of US session and 3 lose transactions (and giving back half of GBP/JPY gain) i need fresh look on market.
Im after analysis and i see few things different.

First of all news for today:

Another SL - 7,5pips.

 Anyway today -27pips in 3 positions and +54in 1.

Tommorow i end day at 17:00 GMT.(because its Friday of course)

Its open now.

Last position today.

I  think anyway to end my day faster - on end of London.

Sell Stop on EUR/USD below 5min minimum.


SL

Opened EUR/JPY

Open 103.452 SL 103.554 SL 10pips

Double top. 2 wave absolut max correction.

20:30  SL 10pips. Seems trend was too rapid.

Probably i wll look for somthing 1 last time



SL -11 pips - still looking for some trades

I owe You USD/CAD chart ;)

18:07 USD/CAD opened on 0.99672 SL 0.99720 SL 11 pips.
Edit 18:34 sorry SL is on 0.99572 of course... 

AUD/USD signals too but too large SL.

18:04 Buy stops USD/CAD 0.99672 - can be moved down with price and bars.

18:00 Now i know nothing ;) - im just looking on corrections breaking all levels and thinking - wtf? Still w8ing for potential coming back to yesterday trends - but its less and less propable. So it can means that stop of this little madness is close.

17:00 Few pairs are on potential levels, im w8ing for DT giving signals.


15:20 we have at least corrections on some pairs - and slowly, slowly i begin to look for some trades with trends like EUR/JPY shorts or USD/CAD longs.

12:55 GBP/JPY SL 123.405. +53pips with 9pips SL.

12:27 SL for long term position moved to 123.405 due to 15min DT buy signal.


11:07  I still dont see anything else. But of course i have analysis of all pairs im trading on. So if i see somthing i will post it.

First on blog ;)


 10:10 Short position closed on SL: 123.401.
+53pips with 9pips SL.
 Long term position SL moved to 123.260

Targets for long term:

 2 levels market blue - over last high of wave 1.
Fibo levels are:
1. Projection of wave 1 from point 2
2.Revers projection of wave 2.



Short term position defending closer - below 5min bars.

Im sorry guys i dodnt have time to write anything.
I opened positions on GBB/JPY

Its first and last time when i didnt inform about it on blog. I was really busy.

Long term is on BE. Short term is defended closer.

 Open price was 122.866

16.02.2012

Situation on markets is strange. All expect EUR to go up because of Greece but we have strong down trend - and it can be the begin of new down trend.

USD is getting stronger, JPY is gettting stronger. Only 1 pair is not going in this way:

GBP/JPY:

Yesterday we had correction of wave 1 - it almost hit 50% Fibo of wave 1. After it few time it bounced from level 38,2 of wave 1.
So it really can go up with wave 3 - and break last high.

SL -13,5pips
19:05 Re-open of EUR/JPY longs. Signals on H1 and 5min. 102.35 open. SL 102.20

Today transactions:

GBP/USD +34 and +24pips - SL 13pips
AUD/USD 0 pips - SL 13pips
EUR/JPY -9,5pips SL
EUR/JPY +8,5pips 0pips  SL 13,5pips

15:52 Short term position SL move to 102.410.

16:35 SL moved on BE for both positions.

 Orders opened at buy stops: 102.323 SL: 102.190 SL = 13,5pips

Its falling down i canceled buy stops.

I have signals both on H1 and 5min. I put Buy Stops over last 5min bar.

Now i expect that price will reach another Fibo levels group - that mean about 25pips lower level. There i will look for position.

15:56 SL - 9,5pips

Im still watching EUR/JPY and i can re-open

15:50 SL - move 1,5pips down. We shouldnt move SL but its just 1,5pips.
15:35  EUR/JPY I opened longs. It seems little risky but SL is only 8pips.
102.540 Open price
102.460 SL



EUR/JPY situation:

EUR/JPY had strong up trend in H1. There was ABC correction and now we are at 2 correction wave of new up trend. It looks like v interesting for me.

 14:23 Seems there is a mess on markets. I will just w8 for 15:00 red news from USD.


Seems long here is not good idea ;) Situation changed. Seems it was little ABC. Now we have wave 1 of new down trend:

How about EUR/USD long on bottom of B in ABC. And going with it to C

13:54 Closed on 0 - i dont like it.

13:37 V close to Stop Loss. But tbh i think it will close on SL anyway:

12:50 AUD/USD shorts opened.  1.07560. SL 1.07695. SL 14pips.
Little more risky position. Thinking about re-opening GBP/USD shorts too.

AUD/USD under observation. Possible shorts. But this ABC correction is not clear.

11:22 GBP/USD Second position closed on SL 1.57015. +24pips with 13pips SL

10:44 slower DT on 5min chart gave sell signal. Im moving SL to: 1.57015

10:23  1 position closed on SL. +34pips with 13pips SL.

10:15 SL for short position moved to 1.56910 over top of little move where faster DT gave sell signal

09:45 - GBP/USD SL on BE for both positions: 1.57245

Potential targets of GBP/USd short:

I have made projections of 1-3waves from point 4 and 2-3 wave from point 4.

After reaching first blue level i will def short term position close, after reaching second blue i will def long term position closer.